Russia Endangers U.S. Allies in Europe, Analysts Say
WASHINGTON, OCTOBER 9, 2008--Russia poses dangers not just to its democratic neighbors but also to U.S. allies in Eastern Europe, security analysts said at an AEI conference on October 6. "The threat, I am afraid, does not end in Georgia. It also extends to Ukraine, it also extends to Poland," AEI resident scholar Frederick W. Kagan said, "and now we have reached a point where the conflict touches the United States."
AEI resident fellow Thomas Donnelly moderated a panel featuring Kagan and Stephen Blank of the Strategic Studies Institute at the U.S. Army War College. They discussed the destabilizing effects of Russia's recent invasion of Georgia on regional security and balance of power and commented on the increasing importance of rethinking American understanding of the Russian Federation and its role in Eastern Europe and the world.
The panelists agreed that Russia's invasion of Georgia marks a shift in Russian policy toward overt aggression directed not only at its immediate neighbors but also at the United States and NATO. "The thrust of Russian policy even before the [Georgian] war was to oust U.S. power from Europe," Blank said. "We need to understand that although [the United States does not] regard Russia as a threat, the reverse is not true." As a result of recent events, NATO's role in the world and its ability to defend its members will need to be reevaluated in the face of the Russian threat. Blank warned that the Russian military and political system allows for "military adventurism"--and not for the last time.
To protect our allies in the region, Kagan said, the United States should begin to reinvigorate NATO and the European Union, impressing upon the world that Russia's disrespect for international law and its own obligations cannot be ignored. Kagan explained that the West's inaction makes the Georgian invasion seem like a victory for Putin: "It [seems like] the West is throwing little Eastern European nations under the bus in the interest of keeping relations with Russia. . . . Instead, NATO needs to rethink the entire purpose of the alliance from bottom to top."
--ARIEL FARRAR-WELLMAN
For video, audio, and more information about this event, visit http://www.aei.org/event1810.
In August, AEI scholars and guests offered an initial assessment of the conflict in Georgia at an event. Frederick W. Kagan offered a frequently updated situation report.
For media inquiries, contact Véronique Rodman at 202.862.4871 or vrodman@aei.org.
###
